The principles of determining market share and market potential are the same for all geographic areas. First determine a customer profile (who) and the geographic size of the market (how many).
This is the general market potential. Knowing the number and strength of your competitors (and then estimating the share of business you will take from them) will give you the market potential specific to your enterprise.
Erik Bowman has been to exactly where you want to go and has written brilliantly about how you can get there yourself. His books on start-ups give you a head start and a major competitive advantage. - Jay Conrad Levinson, The Father of Guerrilla Marketing